| IN555 - 11/30/2018 10:52
Had previously priced 1/3 of production a few weeks ago. Just priced another 1/3 vs the March. Thoughts are if we rally Monday based on a tentative trade agreement that maybe the usda does a last minute change on the MFP. We are up 20 but lose that much on the payment so you net nothing. Yes if nothing happens we are likely to get another 82.5 cents but you might be looking at a market down 20. It’s all speculation but managing my risk is more important than being “right”.
Well, looks to me like you see a trade for a quick 20 cents, and are using the excuse of managing risk as reason to take the trade and using the physical as a backstop if you are wrong - so you can be right. If you had said, "I can make money here and will lift the hedge when the leave the yard", I would believe your assertion. Essentially you are trying to be "right" even if you are wrong. Best wishes either way.
Take Care |