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JP and anyone elese??
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J P
Posted 11/30/2018 08:47 (#7137853 - in reply to #7137752)
Subject: RE: JP and anyone elese??


JC STONE - 11/30/2018 08:08

So if I understand you correctly, you think we are heading to new lows regardless if we make a new high or even if we fail to make a new high.
One of your previous statement seemed to indicate we would only make new lows after a new high was reached. Not notpicking just sounded like you were contradicting yourself somewhat.
I think new lows are in order irregardless.


Hi JC,
No. I am not contradicting myself. The point is that if price cannot make new highs, the probabilities increase dramatically of new lows, and probably substantial ones and it's not too hard to get price into the upper 7's. But the bigger problem remains that last time this happened, - yes it has happened before and in soybeans - and.... tariffs were no where to be seen then I might add - price failed to reach its maximum stretch of where I thought it should go then. I struggled to get my head around it. This time I am more willing to accept a price failure to the maximum stretch as a possibility and thankfully my level of understanding has increased as well. Either way...IMHO, the risk for most producers is not to new lows because if that is what you are worried about, you should have an opportunity to manage risk above 906, its to being blindsided by price moving substantially higher. If you didn't sell last spring, and you aren't going to sell on a poke above 906, then you have to accept the reality that you are likely going to experience a level of discomfort at this market does what it needs to do. And too me this is far from over.

Course you could always hang your hopes on a tweet too......

Take Care

Edited by J P 11/30/2018 09:03
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