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Tarrif question on affecting markets
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farmer4321
Posted 11/28/2018 17:27 (#7134086 - in reply to #7133937)
Subject: RE: I can only guess....


I can only guess that the people who think that no agreement will work out to their advantage in the long run are either end users who want cheap beans or those who think bean acres will be radically lower next year and demand radically higher. It is possible that bean acres will be substantially lower next year but it's also likely that demand will stay low as well. And the longer there is no agreement, the greater chance that other countries will fill the Chinese demand for good. I don't think it's something we should wish for.
I don't know but I would guess, given the condition of the budget, it would be hard to justify paying out the second half if bean prices recover but I suppose given that some have already sold their production at the lower price, you could justify paying it out.
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