| First off you make several good points..
The current low price of ethanol can traced directly back to Pruitt's policy of granting unnecessary RINS waivers and trump's trade policy leading to the shutdown of ethanol exports to China. One of the consequences of the low price & demand for ethanol has been the ethanol producers announcements to curtail production, reduced corn grind and downward pressure on the price of corn.
All valid points.
However, the Week of 10/26/18 ethanol Set a DEMAND RECORD of 1,223.4 k bbls per day of disappearance of which.. 936 k bbls were domestic demand.. leaving 287.4 k bbls implied as exports or other.. (it could be in transport and shows up later..) Still TOTAL disappearance so far for ethanol this year is up 1.6% while the grind is only up.. 0.5% leading to a DRAWDOWN in STOCKS.. which if we can get another good week (and the post will probably jinx that.. smh) we MIGHT even see Ethanol Stocks BELOW a year ago..
Which therefore leads to this.. "not so fast.. my friend." reply.
The higher Crude Oil/RBOB prices have hurt RBOB demand.. which is DOWN 1.6% Year on Year (YOY) while the ethanol inclusion rate.. at 10% is actually UP about 2% on the year.
So margins stink.. plants are cutting back.. but we are starting to work our way through Burdensome stocks.. and CHEAPER Gasoline should sell MORE in the domestic market.. if we could JUST SEE SOME RESOLUTION to TRADE ISSUES.. we could be off to a Sunnier port.. fingers crossed.
edit add: the Stock market and Crude oil are both higher today.. and the debate is whether the Fed Raises rates or pauses on the break in Crude oil.. Bloomberg analyst are pretty adamant that with near record low Unemployment.. no recession is on the horizon.. ?? Other than that.. I see what you say as far as "softness"
However, China Growing at 6% is STILL a much LARGER number than China growing at 10%.. 10 years ago.. "economic slowdown?" Trump tariffs are not helping.. but no slowdown yet..
| | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9/7/2018 | 1020 | | 918 | | 0 | | 22,894 | 60% | | 74.7 | | 523 | | | 992.7 | 105,221 | | | 9649 | 9.51% | | 9/14/2018 | 1051 | | 928 | | 0 | | 22,746 | 60% | | 144.1 | | 1009 | | | 1072.1 | 108,419 | | | 9534 | 9.73% | | 9/21/2018 | 1036 | | 901 | | 0 | | 22,629 | 60% | | 151.7 | | 1062 | | | 1052.7 | 106,872 | | | 8987 | 10.03% | | 9/28/2018 | 1015 | | 917 | | 0 | | 23,445 | 62% | | -18.6 | | -130 | 2464 | | 898.4 | 104,705 | | | 9102 | 10.07% | | 10/5/2018 | 1040 | | 913 | | 71 | | 24,021 | 63% | | 115.7 | | 810 | | | 1028.7 | 107,284 | | | 9078 | 10.06% | | 10/12/2018 | 1011 | | 933 | | 0 | | 24,130 | 64% | | 62.4 | | 437 | | | 995.4 | 104,293 | | | 9182 | 10.16% | | 10/19/2018 | 1024 | | 940 | | 15 | | 23,897 | 63% | | 132.3 | | 926 | | | 1072.3 | 105,634 | | | 9324 | 10.08% | | 10/26/2018 | 1059 | | 936 | | 0 | | 22,746 | 60% | | 287.4 | | 2012 | 4185 | | 1223.4 | 109,244 | | | 9262 | 10.11% | | 11/2/2018 | 1068 | | 917 | | 0 | | 23,150 | 61% | | 93.3 | | 653 | | | 1010.3 | 110,173 | | | 9099 | 10.08% | | 11/9/2018 | 1067 | | 926 | | 37 | | 23,514 | 62% | | 126.0 | | 882 | | | 1052.0 | 110,069 | | | 9192 | 10.07% | | 11/16/2018 | 1042 | | 928 | | 0 | | 22,791 | 60% | | 217.3 | | 1521 | 3056 | | 1145.3 | 107,491 | | | 9185 | 10.10% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18/19 MY 11 wks | 1039.4 | | 923.4 | | 11.2 | | 23269.4 | 61.3% | | 126.0 | | 882.3 | 3235.0 | #DIV/0! | 1049.4 | 107,219 | | | 9235.8 | 10.00% | | 17/18 MY 12 wks | 1034.3 | | 919.9 | | 5.9 | | 21326.8 | 56.2% | | 113.3 | | 792.8 | 3458.3 | 2063.0 | 1033.2 | 106,700 | | | 9386.7 | 9.80% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 518.9 | | | | | | 18/19 vs 17/18 | 0.5% | | 0.4% | | | | 21897.0 | yr ago | | 11.3% | | 11.3% | -6.5% | #DIV/0! | 1.6% | 0.5% | | | -1.6% | 2.0% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | estimated | Reported | | | | | | |
Edited by JonSCKs 11/26/2018 09:30
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