AgTalk Home
AgTalk Home
Search Forums | Classifieds (6) | Skins | Language
You are logged in as a guest. ( logon | register )

regular gas and e85 at same price. Is this a problem?
View previous thread :: View next thread
   Forums List -> Market TalkMessage format
 
JonSCKs
Posted 11/26/2018 09:25 (#7128444 - in reply to #7128401)
Subject: "Not so Fast.. my friend.." Ethanol demand sets a Record!!


First off you make several good points..

The current low price of ethanol can traced directly back to Pruitt's policy of granting unnecessary RINS  waivers and trump's trade policy leading to the shutdown of ethanol exports to China. One of the consequences of the low price & demand for ethanol has been the ethanol producers announcements to curtail production, reduced corn grind and downward pressure on the price of corn

All valid points.

However, the Week of 10/26/18 ethanol Set a DEMAND RECORD of 1,223.4 k bbls per day of disappearance of which.. 936 k bbls were domestic demand.. leaving 287.4 k bbls implied as exports or other.. (it could be in transport and shows up later..)  Still TOTAL disappearance so far for ethanol this year is up 1.6% while the grind is only up.. 0.5% leading to a DRAWDOWN in STOCKS.. which if we can get another good week (and the post will probably jinx that.. smh) we MIGHT even see Ethanol Stocks BELOW a year ago..

Which therefore leads to this.. "not so fast.. my friend." reply.

The higher Crude Oil/RBOB prices have hurt RBOB demand.. which is DOWN 1.6% Year on Year (YOY) while the ethanol inclusion rate.. at 10% is actually UP about 2% on the year.

So margins stink.. plants are cutting back.. but we are starting to work our way through Burdensome stocks.. and CHEAPER Gasoline should sell MORE in the domestic market.. if we could JUST SEE SOME RESOLUTION to TRADE ISSUES.. we could be off to a Sunnier port..  fingers crossed.

edit add: the Stock market and Crude oil are both higher today.. and the debate is whether the Fed Raises rates or pauses on the break in Crude oil..  Bloomberg analyst are pretty adamant that with near record low Unemployment.. no recession is on the horizon..  ??  Other than that.. I see what you say as far as "softness"

However, China Growing at 6% is STILL a much LARGER number than China growing at 10%.. 10 years ago..  "economic slowdown?"  Trump tariffs are not helping.. but no slowdown yet..

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of
                      
9/7/20181020 918 0 22,89460% 74.7 523  992.7105,221  96499.51% 
9/14/20181051 928 0 22,74660% 144.1 1009  1072.1108,419  95349.73% 
9/21/20181036 901 0 22,62960% 151.7 1062  1052.7106,872  898710.03% 
9/28/20181015 917 0 23,44562% -18.6 -1302464 898.4104,705  910210.07% 
10/5/20181040 913 71 24,02163% 115.7 810  1028.7107,284  907810.06% 
10/12/20181011 933 0 24,13064% 62.4 437  995.4104,293  918210.16% 
10/19/20181024 940 15 23,89763% 132.3 926  1072.3105,634  932410.08% 
10/26/20181059 936 0 22,74660% 287.4 20124185 1223.4109,244  926210.11% 
11/2/20181068 917 0 23,15061% 93.3 653  1010.3110,173  909910.08% 
11/9/20181067 926 37 23,51462% 126.0 882  1052.0110,069  919210.07% 
11/16/20181042 928 0 22,79160% 217.3 15213056 1145.3107,491  918510.10% 
                      
18/19 MY 11 wks1039.4 923.4 11.2 23269.461.3% 126.0 882.33235.0#DIV/0!1049.4107,219  9235.810.00% 
17/18 MY 12 wks1034.3 919.9 5.9 21326.856.2% 113.3 792.83458.32063.01033.2106,700  9386.79.80% 
                518.9     
18/19 vs 17/180.5% 0.4%   21897.0yr ago 11.3% 11.3%-6.5%#DIV/0!1.6%0.5%  -1.6%2.0% 
            estimatedReported      






Edited by JonSCKs 11/26/2018 09:30
Top of the page Bottom of the page


Jump to forum :
Search this forum
Printer friendly version
E-mail a link to this thread

(Delete cookies)