Excuse me for posting from Wikipedia.. but I don't want to take the time to hash this out..  

Tragedy of the Commons..

( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons )

The tragedy of the commons is a term used in social science to describe a situation in a shared-resource system where individual users acting independently according to their own self-interest behave contrary to the common good of all users by depleting or spoiling that resource through their collective action. The concept and phrase originated in an essay written in 1833 by the British economist William Forster Lloyd, who used a hypothetical example of the effects of unregulated grazing on common land (also known as a "common") in the British Isles.^[1] The concept became widely known over a century later due to an article written by the American ecologist and philosopher Garrett Hardin in 1968.^[2] In this modern economic context, commons is taken to mean any shared and unregulated resource such as atmosphere, oceans, rivers, fish stocks, or even an office refrigerator.

It has been argued^{[by whom?]} that the very term 'tragedy of the Commons' is a misnomer, since 'the commons' referred to land resources with rights jointly owned by members of a community, and no individual outside the community had any access to the resource. However, the term is now used in social science and economics when describing a problem where all individuals have equal and open access to a resource. Hence, 'tragedy of open access regimes' or simply 'the open access problem' are more apt terms.^[3]

The 'tragedy of the commons' is often cited in connection with sustainable development, meshing economic growth and environmental protection, as well as in the debate over global warming. It has also been used in analyzing behavior in the fields of economics, evolutionary psychology, anthropology, game theory, politics, taxation and sociology.

Although common resource systems have been known to collapse due to overuse (such as in over-fishing), many examples have existed and still do exist where members of a community with access to a common resource co-operate or regulate to exploit those resources prudently without collapse.^[4][5] Elinor Ostrom was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for demonstrating exactly this concept in her book Governing the Commons, which included examples of how local communities were able to do this without top-down regulations.^[6]

Now look at Europe.. they have exhausted most of their easy to develop Natural Energy Resources.. Could they Frack?  Probably but given their environmental culture.. they are not "hungry enough" yet to probably make a big dent.





Germany is either considering or building a Natural Gas Pipeline to Russia for it's Natty needs.. Russia.. a Country Germany once invaded.. and as a member of NATO.. (unless Trump has tweeted something new this morning..??) is still aligned with the West in a joint effort to oppose military aggression.. should it ever break out...??

So my point is this:

All energy is Solar.. Petroleum and Coal are (by most theories) baked or half baked dead vegetation and whatever from millennia ago.. compressed and "cooked" by pressure into whatever form it is now.. coal.. or cooked longer Crude.. with Methane as a response of the process.

That's the bank account.

Or we can live in the now with Solar panels.. wind turbines.. and biomass including ethanol.

When we run short.. we're gonna have to dig into the piggy bank of fossil fuels.. be that a drought.. cloudy.. or calm day.. or whatever.

It probably will not make much difference for my generation.. possibly not my kids generation.. etc.  But As Europe can attest.. after.. "awhile."  The Piggy bank is gonna run low.. That is probably why Europe is more "progressive" or "liberal" which ever term you prefer to use.. about the whole Renewable Energy thingy.

We in the US are still ahead of the curve.. we have cheap (and apparently getting cheaper) fossil fuels for now.. whether we live on that and "over graze" the commons.. is yet to be determined.

the Bakken is a Shale play that at current pumping and DRILLING rates can last.. another.. 25.. 50.. 75 years.. ditto the ones in Texas.. we just came through a price spike.. and hence drilled alot of wells and built alot of infrastructure.. so now.. we can coast for awhile with relatively cheap energy.. until the next crises.. be that a Hurricane in the US Gulf of Mexico shutting in 25% of US Production.. like Hurricanes Katrina and Rita did in 2005..  A War in the Middle East.. aka Iran v Iraq1,  Iran v Iraq2,  Iraq v Kuwait.. Israel v the region.. Iran v ???  Or whatever combination you wanna dream up..  they are endless I'm sure.

Or we could talk about demand.. China with Living standards like the US.. Europe Growing again.. the US having 3%+ GDP for longer than 18 months.. etc..

However you want to slice it and dice it.. Energy is going to be important.. A diversified energy portfolio is going to have advantages.. CNG Vehicles anyone..?? I guess you can buy a CNG Semi for pennies on the dollar right now..  Maybe EV's go that way some day?  Maybe not...??

Ethanol et all.. just a piece to the puzzle.

In my humble opinion Ethanol works.. we have farms.. farmers.. land.. and storage facilities.. we can distill ethanol and fuel our cars to run even at night.  We can extend fossil fuels.. with Higher Octane.. more HP and LESS Cancer causing Aromatics..(Benzene anyone?) "even better."  WHILE we separate out the DDGS and use a THIRD of the Grind for protein (which is the expensive part of the feed ration..) animal feed.

We all get to make choices.

Probably no SINGLE source is going to dominate.. Crude Oil has had a good run.. and will continue to be a dominant energy source for a long time.. longer with ethanol.. 

just my $0.02