tim ar - 11/23/2018 10:03
`
1. The spread between SA and US has narrowed considerable.
2. Brazil will start limited harvest next month
3. What makes you think China won't be willing to pay a premium for soybeans and US will be willing to pay a premium for a wide range of goods?
I don't know how the trade war will turn out. There are times when I think this is the way trade is going to be for the foreseeable future on the other hand I look, after all the bluster, at the new NAFTA deal that looks very similar to the old NAFTA deal with the minor changes looking like TPP. Hard to tell what's rhetoric and what's real.
I agree that the nafta deal doesn't look much different but there is one key difference. If either CA or MX makes a deal with a "non-market (ie china) economy" then nafta is off. IMO that is a huge club to be holding over them.
Thanksgiving dinner review of soybean tariffs from a macro commodity hedger
