I think this is the rub.. Everyone Knows that China is going to have to start importing US Soybeans at some point.. Are they REALLY going to PAY upwards of $2 more to get it from South America?

How is their economy going to be competitive when it must compete with the rest of the World who has LOWER COSTS for both Food and Energy???

.. so there's no question that the US has the upper hand.

The main rub is how does the Trump administration negotiate in a way which allows the Chinese to save face?

When I think of Trump.. deft negotiations and his administration (Wilber Ross "Commerce" secretary , "Ag should just Shut up..")

.. I don't get the "warm fuzzies" that they are up for this..???

However, the Clock is ticking.. in order for the Trump administration to have a Shot at re election.. they MUST WIN IOWA.. it is CRITICAL that they get off to a good start in IOWA.. They face two barriers:

a) Scott Pruitt, Senator Cruz and the rest of the Oil State people in the Administration.. Energy Secretary Rick Perry et all have an image Problem with Ethanol.. and Iowa is the leading producer of ethanol in the country.. Strike 1

b) Soybean Exports.. the Trade War is pushing the Soybean basis out to wide levels with Cash prices almost $10 a bushel lower than the highs seen under the Obama Administration.. Strike 2

So.. the Trump administration NEEDS to improve it's stance on ethanol.. and needs to make progress on trade talks.. Since the mid terms are over.. the press is going to pivot to talking about 2020.. Trump can not afford to get boxed in now.

So BOTH SIDES.. Trump administration and China.. need to Resolve this.. and they need to start now.

only question is "will they?"

Trump was able to wrap the NAFTA talks up quickly.. if he would fire Wilber Ross.. the stock market would probably jump 1,000 points..  so they could pivot.. they need to start acting NOW!!