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JonSCKs
Posted 11/21/2018 12:40 (#7119538 - in reply to #7119298)
Subject: Weekly Ethanol update.


This week's numbers.. the grind slowed.. but for the year to date.. we're still up 0.5%  However, as the BAD MARGIN Environment continues.. news of more plants slowing or shutting down continues to mount.

The Domestic Blenders input was steady for the week and up slightly yoy.. We got a stocks draw for the week which implies that exports or disappearance other than blended was decent.  Total Gasoline demanded has been down.. due probably to the higher crude oil prices.. but the domestic ethanol blend rate is actually higher.. up 2% yoy.

We need to encourage more usage of higher ethanol blends and promote the installation of blender pumps as well as having access to ethanol at terminal blenders.  There's some chatter about discrepancies in how some of the base ethanol pricing terminals are reporting.. which is having a negative impact on ethanol producers.

Not a bad report given the tough environment.. With Crude Oil prices falling.. maybe the lower prices will stimulate more gasoline demand.. and hence more demand for ethanol.. Since the Oil Interests have successfully separated ethanol's link to Crude Oil prices.. Crude's plunge does not seem to be impacting (already) cheaper ethanol.

Given that using ethanol as an octane source does not increase consumers risks of getting Cancer.. we have a Good Story to tell.. unlike Benzene and other Petroleum based octane enhancers.. 

SO LET's CONTINUE TO TELL OUR STORY!!!

Edit Add:  Total disappearance is actually pretty stout.  The 10/26/18 total disappearance of 1,223.4 k bbls is actually a Record.  Year on Year we are up 1.6% which is respectable.  Since Sept 1st.. Total Disappearance has Averaged 1,049 k bbls.. while production has averaged 1,039 k bbls.. so we are "slowly" Chewing through Stocks.  Granted.. part of the change in stocks can be due to transportation (think rail cars in transit) and can show back up later..(see the week of 9/28's -18.6 k bbls when something "showed back up.")  so.. we need a little more history.. but "it looks like" we are moving in the right direction.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of

 

9/7/20181020 918 0 22,89460% 74.7 523  992.7105,221  96499.51% 
9/14/20181051 928 0 22,74660% 144.1 1009  1072.1108,419  95349.73% 
9/21/20181036 901 0 22,62960% 151.7 1062  1052.7106,872  898710.03% 
9/28/20181015 917 0 23,44562% -18.6 -1302464 898.4104,705  910210.07% 
10/5/20181040 913 71 24,02163% 115.7 810  1028.7107,284  907810.06% 
10/12/20181011 933 0 24,13064% 62.4 437  995.4104,293  918210.16% 
10/19/20181024 940 15 23,89763% 132.3 926  1072.3105,634  932410.08% 
10/26/20181059 936 0 22,74660% 287.4 20124185 1223.4109,244  926210.11% 
11/2/20181068 917 0 23,15061% 93.3 653  1010.3110,173  909910.08% 
11/9/20181067 926 37 23,51462% 126.0 882  1052.0110,069  919210.07% 
11/16/20181042 928 0 22,79160% 217.3 15213056 1145.3107,491  918510.10% 
                      
18/19 MY 11 wks1039.4 923.4 11.2 23269.461.3% 126.0 882.33235.0#DIV/0!1049.4107,219  9235.810.00% 
17/18 MY 12 wks1034.3 919.9 5.9 21326.856.2% 113.3 792.83458.32063.01033.2106,700  9386.79.80% 
                518.9     
18/19 vs 17/180.5% 0.4%   21897.0yr ago 11.3% 11.3%-6.5%#DIV/0!1.6%0.5%  -1.6%2.0% 

 

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M



Edited by JonSCKs 11/22/2018 21:09
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