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| You're working way too hard at this. We're staring at a 1.5 billion bushel carryover next year. If you use adjusted WASDE numbers that'll be 42% stocks to use in Sept next year.
The price will depend on three factors, Brazil's crop weather in the next three months, how long the producers in the upper Midwest can hold beans off the market and most importantly whether trump will reach an accommodation with the Chinese and reopen the Chinese market.
At the moment, traders have hedge their bets in the middle of those possibilities and we're trading at the top of that range because there is slightly positive news. Watch what happens if nothing positive comes out of the G-20 meeting this coming week.
Anyhow, that's my fundamentalist take on the situation.
(ZSF19_Barchart_Interactive_Chart_11_17_2018 (full).png)
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