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Ethanol update.
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JonSCKs
Posted 10/18/2018 08:48 (#7053116)
Subject: Ethanol update.


Weekly ethanol production dipped a bit.. the Domestic blend rate actually improved as did the percentage blended so maybe the e-15 announcement is having a small impact.. ??  But again at only 6 weeks of data it is probably too soon to say much about a trend change.

Implied ethanol exports are no doubt down but it takes almost 3 months for the data to catch up.. so it does appear that the Tariffs are hurting us here.  Ethanol margins stink.. but at $0.62 the gap of RBOB vs Ethanol remains wide incentivizing blends to use higher blends of ethanol..  subject to their threshold of allowing that to occur.. Big Oil?  Not so much..  Which is why we need to REMAIN ENGAGED in ASKING for HIGHER ETHANOL BLENDS locally here at the pump!!  It matters!!

fwiw.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of
                      
9/7/20181020 918 0 22,89460% 74.7 523  992.7105,221  96499.51% 
9/14/20181051 928 0 22,74660% 144.1 1009  1072.1108,419  95349.73% 
9/21/20181036 901 0 22,62960% 151.7 1062  1052.7106,872  898710.03% 
9/28/20181015 917 0 23,44562% -18.6 -1302464 898.4104,705  910210.07% 
10/5/20181040 913 71 24,02163% 115.7 810  1028.7107,284  907810.06% 
10/12/20181011 933 0 24,13064% 62.4 4371247 995.4104,293  918210.16% 
                      
18/19 MY 6 wks1028.8 918.3 11.8 23310.861.4% 88.4 618.51855.5
1006.7106,132  9255.39.93% 
17/18 MY 6 wks1018.9 918.3 5.1 21239.156.0% 102.1 714.74049.02063.01020.4105,103  9371.79.80% 
                1,029.1     
18/19 vs 17/181.0% 0.0%   21523.0yr ago -13.5% -13.5%-54.2%
-1.3%1.0%  -1.2%1.3% 

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

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