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Help me understand “futures market”
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JonSCKs
Posted 10/15/2018 19:33 (#7048916 - in reply to #7048838)
Subject: Exactly..


Frequency vs magnitude. You can be right 9 out of 10 trades and still lose money.

Exactly.. in my example above.. it took a couple years of profits at $.25, $.35, $.40 a pop to offset the $3.00 losses occurred in those two years.. 1988/89.. the mid 1990's.. 2003'ish.. were not as bad.. but similar.

About the time you think you've got it figured out.. the market will throw you a curve ball.

That being said.. the basic premise of forward selling the Risks Premium is a good idea.. just "be careful" and understand the RISKS which you are taking..  the first third is probably not a bad idea.. however the first third can turn into 2 thirds pretty darn quick either during a heat wave.. or a flood.. (like now.)

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