| It's been awhile since I've updated and we are already 5+ weeks into the new Crop Year for ethanol so here goes..
First off Gasoline demand (over a small 5 week window) is actually down (probably due to higher prices.. go figure..?!?) 1.5%
Also Ethanol blended is down 0.2% of a percent with the actual data down last week to 913 k bbls vs 923 k bbls a year ago.
On the positive side.. we are so far seeing a higher penetration with the % blended up 1.3%
Again this is ONLY 5 WEEKS into the New year so the data will jump around quite a bit.. these are VERY EARLY trends.. do they continue? If we are going to INCREASE the DOMESTIC BLENDED given the Green Light to go to e-15 it is clear that we MUST DO THE WORK on the GROUND and at the Voting Booth to PUSH BACK against Big Oil.. and it's Minions such as Secretary of Energy Rick Perry from Texas and ALL the OTHER Bureaucrats working AGAINST us.
One other notable is that US Ethanol exports are actually down.. recently.. they were decently good late summer as US values are very attractive vs Gasoline and Last year we were up about 25% but so far.. 5 weeks in.. we are DOWN about 8%.. but again I expect that number to jump around.. a couple good weeks could flip it.
Stay tuned.. | | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of | | 8/31/2018 | 1087 | | 943 | | 32 | | 22,703 | 60% | | 227.1 | | 1590 | 4283 | | 1170.1 | 112,133 | | | 9734 | 9.69% | | | 9/7/2018 | 1020 | | 918 | | 0 | | 22,894 | 60% | | 74.7 | | 523 | | | 992.7 | 105,221 | | | 9649 | 9.51% | | | 9/14/2018 | 1051 | | 928 | | 0 | | 22,746 | 60% | | 144.1 | | 1009 | | | 1072.1 | 108,419 | | | 9534 | 9.73% | | | 9/21/2018 | 1036 | | 901 | | 0 | | 22,629 | 60% | | 151.7 | | 1062 | | | 1052.7 | 106,872 | | | 8987 | 10.03% | | | 9/28/2018 | 1015 | | 917 | | 0 | | 23,445 | 62% | | -18.6 | | -130 | 2464 | | 898.4 | 104,705 | | | 9102 | 10.07% | | | 10/5/2018 | 1040 | | 913 | | 71 | | 24,021 | 63% | | 115.7 | | 810 | | | 1028.7 | 107,284 | | | 9078 | 10.06% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18/19 MY 5 wks | 1032.4 | | 915.4 | | 14.2 | | 23147.0 | 61.0% | | 93.5 | | 654.8 | 2464.0 | #DIV/0! | 1008.9 | 106,500 | | | 9270.0 | 9.88% | | | 17/18 MY 5 wks | 1018.8 | | 917.7 | | 6.0 | | 21199.0 | 55.9% | | 101.9 | | 713.5 | 4049.0 | 2063.0 | 1019.6 | 105,101 | | | 9411.0 | 9.75% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1,399.5 | | | | | | | 18/19 vs 17/18 | 1.3% | | -0.2% | | | | 21523.0 | yr ago | | -8.2% | | -8.2% | -39.1% | #DIV/0! | -1.0% | 1.3% | | | -1.5% | 1.3% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | estimated | Reported | | | | | | | | | | | 923 | | Last year | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | -13.7 | | Lost per week | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M
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Ethanol update.
