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| Bloomberg's reporting that the Chinese aren't coming to talk. They appreciated the invite but given the decision to go ahead with the tariffs on $200 billion in goods, there isn't any reason. The question then becomes, why is the price of soybean futures still $8.30?
Using WASDE data, I plotted the USDA's anticipated next year's stocks to use against the realized next years price. You can see that below. It's a pretty good fit. If the USDA thinks that next year's carryout will be 845 million bushel and use at 4268 then stks/use is 19.8%. Extrapolation suggest the price should be zero.
Even if we understand that the price won't be Zero, this chart suggests that it will be a lot lower than the USDA's projected $7.35.
Pretty sobering if you ask me. So again, why is the futures price still $8.30?
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Bloomberg's reporting.... Why are soybean futures even $8.30?
