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Explanation on how corn ratings only fell one pt.
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w1891
Posted 8/15/2018 21:01 (#6931605 - in reply to #6931592)
Subject: RE: Explanation on how corn ratings only fell one pt.


S Illinois
Here is the footnotes for the weekly report.

"compiled into a National level summary by weighting each State by its acreage estimates. National crop planting progress, progress of development stages, and condition estimates are weighted using the program State’s average planted acres over the previous three crop years.

So IA conditions are the biggest share by % and so on down the line. The no change in 3 of the biggest acreage states (IA, MN, IN) does play a role. When calculated using a simple state acreage weighted average it came to around -1.7% ratings. However since conditions are reported only as whole numbers there can be a rounding error that does not show up in the individual states. Such as maybe IL was actually down 4.6% but it gets reported as 5%. So taking that into account and using the highest rounding error possible it would come up to around -1.2% or rounded to -1%. So its not out of the realm of possibility to get a 1% down rating with numbers presented.

Edit: addition of a minus sign
Edit: There is also a rounding error from the previous week also that could be introduced. That -5% is taking 81%-76%. However the raw numbers could have been 80.6%-76.4% or a change of 4.2% which would make the -1% even more doable.
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