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NE Iowa | Partimer, I always look forward to your interpretation. Here is Brent Harris', a noted Elliot guy,thoughts.
CORN: Although the near immediate development of a “5-wave rally” on the intra-day charts in corn...could turn the pattern back to the BULL-SIDE in a hurry, the decline from the April 9 high has now EXCEEDED the greatest duration of ANY other drop since the Dec 2017 “continuation chart” low. Thus, since this development implies that we’ve probably FINISHED a larger, “wave-(3)advance” (from the Dec 2017 low), we could now be in a “wave-(4)decline”, of the same-degree as the Sept-Dec 2017/”wave-(2)correction”. In which case, prices will presumably REMAIN IN general downtrend for at least another couple of weeks, with THE BEST DOWNSIDE TARGET PROBABLY BETWEEN ABOUT 3.70 3/4-AND-3.65 IN THE NEARBY CONTRACT, AND/OR ABOUT 3.79 1/2-TO-3.73 3/4 BASIS JULY. Under this count, however, assuming we do HOLD fairly close to this support, AND it’s possible to label a COMPLETED, “a-b-c decline”...within the next couple of weeks, then the stage should be set FOR A FINAL, “wave-(5)ADVANCE”. Depending on “how” this anticipated rally unfolds, my guess is that we’ll probably AT LEAST REACH OUR MINIMUM TARGET AT THE 4.04 1/2-4.06 1/2 LEVEL, BEFORE the risk of a major downturn is apt to INCREASE CONSIDERABLY. Finally, because there is A SLIGHT CHANCE that we’ve ALREADY FINISHED the up-move from the 2017 low, pattern development over the next couple of weeks will be VERY IMPORTANT. If the current decline ends-up looking MORE LIKE A “BEARISH-FIVE”, then we may have to look at LOWERING OUR SIGHTS ON SELLING/HEDGING this market? Although, UNTIL we actually exceed the $11.00 level in the soybeans, we probably WOULD NOT get very aggressive on the short-side of the corn. Near-term support for JULY is at 3.88 1/2 and 3.84, with near-term resistance at 3.91 3/4, 3.99 1/4-4.01 3/4. | |
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Elliot Wave in corn
