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More April cold vs yield.
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farmer4321
Posted 4/18/2018 08:24 (#6716971)
Subject: More April cold vs yield.


This may have previously been covered but since it snowed all day here yesterday and we're due for another 3-5 in. today. I took some time to dig out some weather statistics for Minn. and plotted them against Minn's past yields. If you plot the year to year deviations from trendline yield vs the April ave. temp. anomaly you see the chart below. Discounting the two really poor yields that occurred in 1988 & 1993 you can see that the probability of a below trend yield is higher given a cold April. It doesn't guarantee a below trend yield but the chance of one is more likely.
In contrast, if the April temp anomaly is greater than -2 and particularly 0 or greater, the likelihood of a average to above average yield is considerably higher. We don't yet have the April 2018 results but all the indications are that it will be well below average, likely less than -2.



(Minn yld vs april temp-page-001 (full).jpg)



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Attachments Minn yld vs april temp-page-001 (full).jpg (49KB - 80 downloads)
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