|
| A 2 bu increase is a little over 1%. It isn't likely that I'll even notice given the year to year, field to field variation on my farm. Now 1% per year over 10 years, yeah, I'll start to notice.
On the other hand, the year to year variation due to weather, across the whole country, now that's something that we can see, even feel. Below is a chart showing the probability of a % deviation above, below or around the trend yield over the past 60-some years.
You can see that there is a reasonable probability that the national yield will be above or below 5%. 5% is 8.5 bushel. That's big enough to notice, big enough for the traders to notice.
 (freq deviations around trend yld corn-page-001 (full).jpg)
Attachments
----------------
 freq deviations around trend yld corn-page-001 (full).jpg (50KB - 148 downloads)
| |
|
Do farmers struggle adjusting to trend yields?
