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S Illinois | Agree to a point, but not sure trend is that high yet or that last year was only a little above trend.
http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2017/11/should-we-be-surprised-abo...
This was made in Oct. at which time USDA was at 171.8 vs the Jan reported number of 176.6. On their scale last years yield was 9.8 bu above trend, or 8 bu higher than their trend yield for 2018. Now trend is somewhat unduly influenced by bad years so one can likely tack a bu or 2 on to get a true "average weather" yield. I for one am not ready however to say that IL will average better than 200 year in/year out and to get these high US yields it will take both IA and IL to average that especially now that the western corn belt(Dakota's down through KS) has a higher % of acres when compared to pre-2007. | |
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