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| After a month and half, everybody has had a chance to think about this 199A coop deduction provision, the experts have all looked at it, agreed that it's a real issue, and everybody has posited their opinions as to whether it will get fixed or allowed to stand. Almost everybody says that it might get fixed or it might not, nobody says 100% either way.
So that raise the question, what is the likelihood one way or another? Well, we could take a poll and it might tell us something but then again we all know about polls. The approach is to look for changes in the market. Are people changing their behavior.
For example, we do know that if the provision isn't changed Coop members and Coop's stand to gain a very substantial competitive advantage in the grain business. The other thing we know is that if it doesn't get changed this year it won't be retroactive. So any producer who currently has the opportunity to sell thru a Coop would a fool not to and likewise any farmer who doesn't have sell right now shouldn't be selling thru other channels.
This means that we should already be seeing a change in selling behavior. Marketing thru Coop's should be increasing and marketing thru other channels decreasing.
It would be interesting to get reports as to whether any shift in marketing is occurring. | |
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199A Coop deduction provision.
