Definitely agree last winter was stronger in appearance; like I said above, our pick-up from $9.34 over $8.44 8 months earlier with a $1.50 run to $10.80 certainly gave the impression we had turned a corner. But we ran out of steam and part of that was a difficult to attain goal of breaking the summer high, $12.08'4 on my continuous. The action of breaking points gives strength to a run and can extend it. The other part was an excellent South American crop in 2017.

We have a good Brazil crop yet again, but Argentina is enough of an issue to provide excitement. With these easier to break points for this winter, we may be able to extend a rally further than it actually deserves. That's why it's worthy of watching and respecting.

I agree with your fundamentals generally though and agree that it still has a bearish outlook. Our crop insurance prices look like they might be almost identical to last year's $3.96 and $10.19; maybe just a little lower like $3.92 and $10.05 if we stay in this area for the balance of the month. So acres should work out much the same.

BUT......................

The technicals can carry this Argentina story further than it deserves and it might well lead us into this elephant in the room:

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