So the big surprise in wheat is the supposedly UNCHANGED Acreage.. (even though it was down about 100,000 acres..)

Setting aside what spring wheat is gonna do.. I assumed that we would grow acreage up there.. but given that BEANS RALLIED and WHEAT SOLD off.. I'm rethinking THAT assumption..

So it's setting up for a REPEAT of Last year..

46'ish myn planted.. 37.6 myn harvested (did they lower harvested acres for damage?? like some were looking for..  guess not..) x 46.3 bu ( are we looking THAT good??) = 1,741 production.

They've ADDED 37 myn to IMPORTS.. CUT 56 myn from FEED which TOTALS 93 myn in adjustments.. (okay whatever..) and REDUCED DEMAND to 2,087 even though we're possibly slightly AHEAD of hitting the 975 export number.. 333 left to go with half the year remaining..)

So ASSUME it's a TOTAL REPEAT of 2017

1,741 crop + 155 imports (really up 56..??  WHO is IMPORTING INTO a $3.00 CASH market..???  Where do you find WHEAT THAT CHEAP!!) - 2,087 usage is a DRAW of 191 Myn bushels.. Last year we had 1,181 to pull from - 191 = 990 PROJECTED Carry out.

Rinse and repeat.. takes us to 799.. about what the funds are NOW SHORT.

Do you REALLY BELIEVE that those two adjustments.. 37 MORE in IMPORTS.. and 56 LESS Feed usage vs the previous year.. is REPEATABLE..

Then Ask yourself if you believe we can do 46 bu yields THIS Year..

take yields down to 40.. and back out the adjustments.. takes you DOWN to 480..  CUTTING the CARRYOUT in HALF!!

We've seen whole farm yields in the teen's before.. 4 TIMES the number I just used.. that would be extreme.. but at this stage in the game those years.. we looked better.. than we do today.  You can't get to 46 without spending some $$$ on fertility.. 

Are Guys going to DO THAT with the conditions we have today???

Furthermore, we can STILL TEAR IT OUT!!