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La Nina.. It's Back.
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JonSCKs
Posted 11/20/2017 07:26 (#6377157 - in reply to #6377145)
Subject: RE: La Nina.. It's Back.


From my earlier work.. I thunk I know.. (??) that it's the TREND which matters.. look at the DIRECTION those ONI (Longer term) or SST (shorter term) are moving.. IF they are moving LOWER.. Like Early Last fall.. we got our dryness out of the way early.. made for a good fall harvest..

THIS YEAR.. it's starting later.. and falling like a rock.. LAST YEAR the ONI only got down to -0.7.. the LATEST SST is -1.1.. SHOULD THAT LAST (???)  we could go deeper into the blue.. and quicker.. the effects lag.. so the SST NOW.. is telling us.. well what the ONI could do.. which is telling us what a couple months from NOW are gonna do.. which would put us into early spring...

..AND last year.. "whew" it stopped and improved...

This thing is kind of like riding a roller coaster in the dark.. all we know is that it's dropping.. for how long??  and how deep?  and how fast..???

the answer to THOSE questions.. will impact what's coming..  or what THAT SMALL PART of the METEROLOGICAL world will do to influence ALL THE REST OF THE MOVING PARTS to our weather/climate..


aka.. it could be no big deal.. or it could be 2011/2012 part duex... and for the record my guru still says that 2011/201 was only the opening act.. with much WORSE events yet to come.. around 2016..17..18.. he said this back in 2012.

"gulp."

In the 1950's we had dry events which lasted.. for a couple years.. Last year's "little Dryness" in the northern plains could be the opening act to what's coming in 2018.. which could BUILD on that Event..  "so.. you thunked 2017 was dry?  I'll SHOW YA what DRY is.."

This is more AMO/PDO cycle stuff.. but we only entered that bad part of the cycle a few years ago.. and we got another couple of decades to go before we start to climb out of it.. think 1930's.. 1950's.. kind of stuff.. things that would turn 180 bu trend corn yields down to 130'ish etc..

guess we'll find out..



Edited by JonSCKs 11/20/2017 07:40
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