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Hammering out a bottom...
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frytownfarmer
Posted 8/25/2017 16:09 (#6209759)
Subject: Hammering out a bottom...



Frytown, Iowa

Here is a formation Ive been watching that I call "hammering" out a bottom. I've seen it first hand in silver, blindsided by it in soybeans, and found it in soybean meal and live cattle while researching this formation... basically its the bottom of a bear run and has a significant move to the upside after the 3rd drive lower fails to make a significant lower low...

You can see they are all a little different but the one thing they have in common is a nice swing up then down (red lines) then 3 hammers trying to hammer out a significant lower low... You can see we are on our 3rd and final hammer attempting to hammer out that last significant low. Looking at the pattern of this low you can see that there is a really good chance of the crop growing in the field to not only over take the $4 sellers of this summer but eventually a significant rally up to $5-6

This can technically still happen even if the price of corn drops down to 3 as you can see from the other formations however I really think a smaller set of median lines is going to catch it here at 3.38

Anyways here is a formation in corn that is getting me pretty bulled up... this is separate from the formation that made me excited in soybeans... part of me wonders about the different formations of these bottoms... some get hammered out like this... others throw a "V" bottom and other patterns I don't know how to describe... I wonder if these are "signatures" of which whale is forming that bottom? I don't know.

some examples first then corn last... dates are clear so you can look them up yourselves... Corn is monthly, the rest are weekly and daily charts


 





(meal.png)



(Live Cattle.png)



(silver.png)



(Soy.png)



(corn.png)



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Attachments meal.png (54KB - 108 downloads)
Attachments Live Cattle.png (58KB - 90 downloads)
Attachments silver.png (59KB - 114 downloads)
Attachments Soy.png (54KB - 99 downloads)
Attachments corn.png (42KB - 112 downloads)
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frytownfarmer
Posted 8/25/2017 16:15 (#6209771 - in reply to #6209759)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...



Frytown, Iowa

the others are daily and weekly... 





(Screen Shot 2017-08-25 at 4.14.53 PM.png)



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Attachments Screen Shot 2017-08-25 at 4.14.53 PM.png (123KB - 67 downloads)
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JUST LEARNING
Posted 8/25/2017 16:51 (#6209817 - in reply to #6209759)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...


KS and NE in eastern 3rd
On your other patterns it took several bars after the last attempt higher to make that low but in the corn chart you show the low as the very next bar.
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GOMSK
Posted 8/25/2017 16:54 (#6209823 - in reply to #6209817)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...


Other charts were weekly, he chose monthly for corn chart.
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JUST LEARNING
Posted 8/25/2017 17:15 (#6209859 - in reply to #6209823)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...


KS and NE in eastern 3rd
Yeah I saw that just pointing out the formations were different.
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frytownfarmer
Posted 8/25/2017 17:21 (#6209865 - in reply to #6209859)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...



Frytown, Iowa
Oh ya. All the formations are different. But they all have the 3 drives, fail and head higher. We are on the 3rd drive lower and I'm pointing that out

Corn will be different than each one of those

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frytownfarmer
Posted 8/25/2017 17:09 (#6209846 - in reply to #6209817)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...



Frytown, Iowa
Could be. I chose today as a bottom based off a weekly median line not from this monthly formation. It is tough watching it move so slow

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david ecpa
Posted 8/25/2017 17:24 (#6209872 - in reply to #6209759)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...



ecpa
EW picture



Edited by david ecpa 8/25/2017 17:26




(corn wave B up.png)



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Attachments corn wave B up.png (45KB - 66 downloads)
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frytownfarmer
Posted 8/25/2017 17:35 (#6209892 - in reply to #6209872)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...



Frytown, Iowa
Thanks David. To me it's confusing to see all the different waves from different sized swings. How many swing sizes did you mark out there?

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allis7040
Posted 8/25/2017 17:47 (#6209911 - in reply to #6209872)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...


Tama iowa
I'm still in camp of higher prices. But I'm trying to look for things I missed. Looking at the monthly chart going back to the 88 and 96 high. It is followed by 3 lower highs and 3 lower lows before a higher low is put in. Is this something I missed and my view is wrong? There is a lot of things going on in the monthly pattern. And to be honest i did not put much time in this. I think I would need days and I don't have that time. Others that have put in the work willing to share?
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Centuryfarm
Posted 8/25/2017 19:16 (#6210036 - in reply to #6209911)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...


I guess the three Indians formation can work for bottoms as well as tops.
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WTF2014
Posted 8/25/2017 20:34 (#6210211 - in reply to #6209759)
Subject: RE: Hammering out a bottom...


CIL
As a simple producer, I don't worry so much about the bottom. I hope fully sell on the way up (when it's profitable) and on the way down (when it's profitable). So from this simple farmer's standpoint, bottoms and top's don't matter as much as direction. So what do you see as the direction?
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