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buying calls yet Rob?
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Rob.Cogdill
Posted 6/22/2017 09:30 (#6083938 - in reply to #6083906)
Subject: RE: buying calls yet Rob?



In a van, down by the river.
I'm kind of a greedy bum swashbuckling grain merchant, so I'm probably going to drag my feet until closer to the June 30th report. I actually shorted a call for the first time ever when I sold my last one (it expires tomorrow...). I haven't really looked at the charts for any targets, but I don't see anything out there telling me the bleeding is done yet. I've never done a call spread before (i.e. window, fence), but I might try one for the report.

With harvest getting going on a big Safrinha crop in Brazil (with their bins full of beans), large US carryover (and under-hedged producer), a less threatening weather outlook up here, southern US corn coming off the combine in 45ish days, and the rest of us picking in 100ish days, I believe the speculator is seeing a YELLOW light on shorting the market today, but a neutral report on the 30th might turn that to green. Considering the volume of hedge pressure the corn market will experience between now and Thanksgiving, they probably aren't worried about who will sell them corn if they decide they want their shorts back.

I received a warning shot from a trusted advisor a few days ago to consider the similarities between the current market and the summer of 2013...not a pretty picture.

Before I get too wadded up in a bearish funk, sometime in the next week or so I need to look for some perspective in the historical record to be sure I'm not missing something...
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