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| Look at this chart. Not much Carryover in Spring Wheat if 25% of acres are abandoned.
HRS Abandonment Overview: There are stronger indications of increased abandonment of HRS wheat in the Northern Plains due to the ongoing drought. The largest percentage abandonment of HRS was 22.3% in 1988. Updated balance sheet for 17/18 below incorporates three scenarios. “Catastrophic” reflects an historic high of 25% abandonment; “Severe” reflects 10%; and “Moderate” reflects 5%. For each one, the yield is maintained at the current ATI model estimate of 39.5 bpa; i.e. acreage that is harvested would average this level. Demand projections are also held constant from a “normal” abandonment scenario. This is done for illustrative purposes only as demand rationing would be seen at some point, most notably under the “Catastrophic” scenario.
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