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| Brazil has 300 million hectares it can develop, Eastern Europe has an estimated 40 million hectares. Europe generally doesn't use GM yet. Biggest problem moving forward is that even if all this extra land area and any new technologies are accounted for there is simply not enough P & K available globally to sustain it and will become the limiting factor. The Biofuels debate is only a short term issue as consumption globally is set to double in the next 30 years. The rate that current production is expanding is only half what it needs to be to keep pace with rising consumption. World stocks are dropping but, in the case of wheat, supply still exceeds demand, but the crossover is getting closer. When it does all hell will break loose - just look at rice. Biofuels just brought the inevitable forward slightly. Softs may be lacking shine short term but medium/long they will be immense. This won't necessarily translate into margin as we already know but it does provide for opportunities... | |
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