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| I believe that harvested acres of corn will be 83.5 million based on 90.750 million planted acres (down due to prevented planting) and a harvested level of 92%. Then the yield becomes key and I do not think it will be over 167 bushel per acre. This is based partly on the areas shown to not receive much moisture through mid August not having enough poor moisture holding capacity to draw from. We could see a final yield below 165.0 and production in the 13.750 billion area. Yields could also drop from an early freeze. It is clear that certain areas of IL will have record yields but I do not think (based on KSU vegatation maps and current forecasts and several key areas getting less than 75% of normal rainfall the past 30 days) that IL, IN and OH can carry us to a yield anywhere above 170.
Just my thoughts and these are NOT what I expect USDA to show in the August 12th report which I feel could be the most bearish report of the year for corn. | |
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How much will harvested acres drop?
