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How much will harvested acres drop?
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JonSCKs
Posted 7/31/2014 10:46 (#3994774)
Subject: How much will harvested acres drop?


Remember how all the market guru's said we were gonna have a 13/14 corn carryout number over 2 Billion Bushels last year..??

US Ending Stocks 2013/14

May #
Feb Ag Outlook
Avg Guess
Range of Guesses 

Corn
 ???
2.177
1.993
1.387 - 2.427

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=388478&posts=5#M3088652

(note NOT picking on anyone.. just point of reference for where we were at..)

So.. what happened?  How did we get to 1246.. lower then even the BOTTOM of the predicted range?

http://usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

CORN2012/132013/14 Est.2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj.
  JuneJuly
   Million Acres 
Area Planted97.295.491.7 *91.6 *
Area Harvested87.487.784.3 *83.8 *
   Bushels 
Yield per Harvested Acre123.4158.8165.3 *165.3 *
   Million Bushels 
Beginning Stocks98982111461246
Production10780139251393513860
Imports162353030
    Supply, Total11932147811511115136
Feed and Residual4326517552505200
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/6053646064356435
   Ethanol & by-products 3/4648507550505050
    Domestic, Total10379116351168511635
Exports731190017001700
    Use, Total11111135351338513335
Ending Stocks821124617261801
    CCC Inventory00  
    Free Stocks8211246  
       Outstanding Loans3250  
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu)  4/6.894.35 - 4.553.85 - 4.553.65 - 4.35
     

Part of the answer lies in Harvested acres.. remember the big debate last year about how much was not planted?  I stumbled across this as I updated my acreage data below last night...

Specifically.. NASS from their June 30th forecast of PLANTED acres vs what I believe is their most recent one.. (??)  I believe our average 4 year drop in corn plantings vs intentions is something like 1.4 myn acres... as quoted somewhere.. in an article.. so my 1.241 is actually a little low.. given history.  (look it up.. prove me wrong..)

US Corn Planted Acreage      
  InitialFinal  InitialFinal ?? 
NASS20132013  2014   
          
AR 1,000880-120 580   
CO 1,2501,220-30 1,170   
IL 12,20012,000-200 12,000   
IN 6,1006,000-100 6,000   
IA 14,00013,600-400 13,600   
KS 4,5004,300-200 4,100   
KY 1,6001,530-70 1,550   
LA 750680-70 420   
MI 2,8002,600-200 2,550   
MN 8,7008,600-100 8,500   
MO 3,4503,350-100 3,500   
NE 10,2009,950-250 9,300   
NY 1,2501,200-50 1,160   
NC 950930-20 860   
ND 3,9003,850-50 3,050   
OH 3,9503,900-50 3,700   
PA 1,5001,480-20 1,460   
SD 5,9006,200300 5,900   
TX 2,4002,350-50 2,100   
WI 4,2004,100-100 4,200   
    0     
Total 97,37995,365-2,014 91,641-1.24190.4??
   95,400WASDE   0.916 
        82.806 
        169 
        13,994 

Now look at the beanies which was a knock out surprise in the June Report..  EVERY SINGLE STATE ('cept Indy, NC and Tx.. "uh-hum".. and honestly is TEXAS REALLY a soybean state... he he he.. see if any lone star guys are reading this..) is a RECORD..(Seriously..?!? my BS meter is going off..

As I was entering it last night.. I would look at the record.. for the next state.. add a few and VIOLA.. darn if that wasn't pretty CLOSE to what NASS printed... golly guys.. I can pull numbers out of a hat also...  hmm.. let's make.. KY.. 1,690.. HEY.. 1,690 (lol honeslty I nailed a couple of them.. lol..) and let's LA make 1,350.. nope 1,440.. yipper gonna be a BIG BEAR...

So when we get certification done.. what are the REAL numbers going to be?  As we saw FIRST HAND last year.. they can be SUBSTANTIALY DIFFERENT.

jmho.. "I could be wrong."

US Soybeans              
Harvested acres              
               
 200520062007200820092010201120122013Yield201413 - 06 14 - 13
               
AL14515018031043036029533542543500275183.33%75
AR3,0003,1002,7903,1503,2703,0903,2703,1603,23043.53,3501304.19%120
IL9,45010,0508,1508,6009,3509,2508,8608,9209,4204910,050-630-6.27%630
IN5,3805,6804,6805,2005,4405,2905,2905,1405,190515,490-490-8.63%300
IA10,05010,0508,5208,9509,53010,1509,2309,3009,24044.510,040-810-8.06%800
KS2,8503,0002,5503,1003,6504,0503,7503,8103,540364,19054018.00%650
KY1,2501,3801,0801,3201,4201,3801,4801,4701,64049.51,69026018.84%50
LA8507805909709401,0009801,1151,110481,44033042.31%330
MI1,9901,9801,7401,8901,9902,0901,9401,9901,890442,290-90-4.55%400
MN6,8007,2006,1506,9507,1207,4107,0206,9906,620417,420-580-8.06%800
MS1,5901,7701,4202,1802,0302,2001,8001,9501,990452,22022012.43%230
MO4,9605,1504,5505,0005,3005,4505,2005,2605,55035.55,6504007.77%100
NE4,6604,8003,7704,7004,7605,3504,8304,9904,760535,350-40-0.83%590
NY188188203231254282277312278483979047.87%119
NC1,4601,3901,3601,5701,7501,5201,3601,5801,420331,670302.16%250
ND2,9003,7002,9903,3403,8703,7603,9504,7304,620305,95092024.86%1,330
OH4,4804,3804,1304,5804,5304,6804,5404,5804,430494,940501.14%510
PA420450420440445465490520535496008518.89%65
SD3,8503,7503,1804,0404,1904,3004,0704,7104,580404,91083022.13%330
TX23020082185190180901109525125-105-52.50%30
WI1,5801,6201,3301,5601,6201,6601,6001,7001,550381,780-70-4.32%230
               
Total71,36173,93562,82072,12176,37277,98673,63676,10475,86943.384,05319342.62%8,184
Ave $$$5.66 $6.43 $10.10 $9.97 $9.59 $11.30 $12.50 $14.40 $12.70      
D/C %4%5%8%9%6%3%6%7%10% 7%   


Edited by JonSCKs 7/31/2014 11:30
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