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Possibly the dumbest analogy ever
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Pat H
Posted 7/31/2014 08:58 (#3994646 - in reply to #3994585)
Subject: RE: These markets will make anyone look like an idiot


Strategies that have worked poorly too many times turn out to be the lottery. The difference between lucky and not has been almost $2 bushel in corn at times. Anyone suggesting the fundamentals all rule and corn had to go to $8 hasn't farmed very long. This is not marketing like it used to be - note that almost every analyst and and adviser is scratching their heads trying to find analog years. Seems they pick a different year every week. Fundamentally a good crop will pressure price, yet in the past it did the opposite. There is just as much possibility of a run up in grain as a run down in grain depending on what the big money wants to do. We get the ride and hopefully capitalize on occasional, oddly timed high prices.

For those that just play the market, it could be a great ride if they are careful to take profit before big money turns the boat around. However, as the title of my post suggests any and all strategies can look genius or foolish at any given time. This wasn't the case in the 90's and the early 2000's where fundamentals seem to play a larger role. The problem then was having a bad crop while everyone else had a bumper crop and insurance wasn't quite as lucrative as it is now.
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