Posted 9/18/2013 08:53 (#3334718) Subject: 158.81 bu/ac national yield
I just went through the numbers being reported on the Agweb corn harvest map and came up with a 158.81 bu/ac national yield. This only represents a small sample size (.06% of harvested acres) but it is based on real numbers. If you take 97.4-3.573pp*.91*158.81 we get a crop of 13.56 billion bushels. Smaller than the USDA's 13.8 billion bushels but still a huge crop. These numbers being reported are heavily weighted to the southern crop which we knew was pretty good. The question is what happens in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota? With the problems in those states, I would say the average comes down some and 155bu/ac is probably a good number for the national average. That would give us a crop of 13.23 billion bushels. Where the USDA comes up with 13.8 billion is anyone's guess.