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| No offense taken. $5 corn does not work for the hog operator & while hogs, poultry & the cow herd are in strong hands, I do sense we are liquidating hogs & think we are close on seeing some decisions made on poultry & some of the less efficient ethanol plants have to be struggling & crude oil is weaker. The slowing of feed demand takes time as sows are not hi-energy feed consumers, but if the cow kill speeds up and we have a growing stream of non-fed cattle coming into the kill..that is hamburger & hamburger is a benchmark in cattle prices. Further, I think everyone on this forum recognizes we are in a recessionary period which may last several months or longer & could take the edge off consumer demand. If we put the feed demand & ethanol demand on the defensive...it is difficult to justify corn prices much above $5.
I do not anticipate a collapse in corn in the short run. I expect it to enter a sideways trading phase with some more attempts to test the highs....I remain friendly to wheat and soybeans, except we are entering a seasonal period when it is not unusual to get a break in prices (February break syndrome) & while I own a small amount of beans and wheat, I am going to be careful for a few days before I add more....The way I trade, I have to sell the hard spots in old crop corn, if wrong get out & try again....as I do think feed demand is going to begin to struggle in the spring. We have three major uses for corn: feed, ethanol & exports. Strong exports alone, in my experience, will not support a bull market. More later.
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No Offense Senior, but...
