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| My good friend will appreciate the input & some day when things allow him the time, he would be enjoyable on this forum as he talks straight.
While I think acreage considerations are very important, that issue will actually remain an unknown until the crop is planted. Each state can swing anywhere 100,000+ or – depending on planting weather and usual unpredictable problems which are not related to price.
One of the keys in my mind. There has been a growing skepticism among some people as to whether the Chinese are going to take all of the US origin beans or switch to SA as the crop is harvested. This is a legitimate concern as the Chinese have historically been traders and have done such before. Using the USA as a back up hedge. Tomorrow’s export numbers will be important.
I have noticed over the years two things. In bull markets the various reports tend to remain bullish until after a top & it no longer responds to bull news & in bull markets, when seeing bearish news, will digest it over a week or two and resume the trend.
The bothersome thing about this market, to me, even though I bought a few beans today, is the constant flow of bullish news. This market needs to be tested with some bear news to see if the train remains on the tracks. All of these price predictions are meaningless to me, I’d like to see this thing tested with the unexpected.
I relish a certain level of panic. I know our brains are not muscles....since I cannot exercise it...a good jolt of adrenalin now & then in addition to a lot of caffeine is required in my case.
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A Thought.
