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| I had a chance to get caught up on my reading this weekend, and it is obvious that the bull runneth wild on every site that I read. With Friday's report, this is completely understandable and is a grain farmer's dream come true. I am hoping that it hangs tough through February, so we have a massive CRC guarantee (crop insurance). We saw $620-$650 per acre guarantees last year. What will these numbers be this year?
The thing that frightens me the most is the over abundance of bullish sentiment. This is typically when things go the other way. If a large money player decides he's seen enough, a chain event will follow. With so many long positions, one hickup will cause another... so on and so on. Stop losses are contagious.
Now to the title of my post: I am strongly thinking about doing a May or July HTA on my remaining unpriced corn bushels and choosing the best valued put option to go with it (not sure of month or strike yet). I might be wrong, but I think this will be the way to reach the $6+ mark and still have a floor above anything I've ever gotten before. The most logical thing that I read in the previous posts was when SC stated, "The current excitement is over corn & I am now very cautious and am not going to follow this run in corn, as instead think in terms of selling this market at some point in the next few weeks." I tend to agree. I have seen euphoria change to despair far too many times in my life. History tends to repeat. | |
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How to make $6-$7 Corn
