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| I believe night trading begins 1/2 hour earlier tonight.
If, there are 89 mil acres of corn at 153 bu/acre & 92.4% harvested & leave feed & residual & exports at 2006 demand level and zero growth in ethanol....& this is strictly a wild estimate....we would have a 2.0 bil carry out....key is ethanol as if a 30% growth rate were to continue....the carryout could be below 700....understand this is very tenative as the argentine crop is yet an unknown...export demand could exceed the 2006 level & the us dollar action may have a lag effect and surprise all of us (bull wise) & of course, weather. No margin for a reduced crop except more rationing would have to occur. But, normal weather, some livestock liquidation is going to soften demand. I put these numbers together as I am trying to derive some kind of working benchmark...I am going to stand aside the corn market. It is not unusual to set a high this time of the year in corn, from which you get a substantial reaction & too much overall emotion for my tastes. If the speculators continue to have an appetite for this market it can run a lot further, but means the downside when ever it occurs will be steep. | |
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Corn.
