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| Several forms and types of buyers & sellers to consider for tomorrow night & Monday.
Only speculative contracts are reviewed, not commercial as the bulk of their actions would, or should, be based upon actual business.
New sellers sourced from producer selling
New buying from less knowledgeable uncovered commercial users.
The pricing of existing basis sales will be in the form of futures exchange & not new transactions.
Speculative selling on 2nd day up & would think a lot of folks are thinking along those lines.
Speculative buying on 2nd day up might eminate from funds and technical types and a few folks with high emotions.
Usually, when reviewing the CFTC reports, I look at the net positions in old & new crop. I think it is important to review the speculative longs and shorts in this situation.
The ratio number represents the number of speculative open long futures/options as compared to each open short/options. For example, there are 1.3 open longs for each short in old crop corn.
Typically, there will be a lot of folks ready to take some profits at the limit...if it fails to lock, there is usually (based upon experience) a foot race to liquidate before a potential key reversal--which is usually in a trader's mind in this type of scenario.....this leads to a wide down swing until strong support is evidenced.
If it locks again.....then the day session will be most interesting as the shorts will have approximately 3 hours to march to the confessional to get some serious religion (and their loan officer). However, I seriously doubt G-d has much compassion for futures traders. No offense intended.
I find old crop wheat very interesting. If there were some reason to race the shorts, they lack sufficient open longs to cover...looks like those are owned by the commercials. If I were short old crop wheat and I am not, and I will not be in this market regardless of how tempting....I would not rest well tonight.
Corn
Speculative Longs
Old New
Large 241,368 188,254
Small 148,809 54,896
Total 390,177 243,150
Speculative Shorts
Large 111,013 21,429
Small 189,079 112,964
Total 300,092 134,393
Ratio: 1.30 1.81
Soybeans
Speculative Longs
Large 126,321 60,640
Small 74,590 19,807
Total 200,911 80,447
Speculative Shorts
Large 41,639 10,084
Small 89,957 33,739
Total 131,596 43,823
Ratio: 1.52 1.83
Wheat
Speculative Longs
Large 55,723 71,530
Small 29,223 19,518
Total 84,946 91,048
Speculative Shorts
Large 84,366 24,048
Small 39,798 32,198
Total 124,164 56,246
Ratio: .68 1.62
Edited by SeniorCitizen 1/12/2008 20:56
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Potential Chokees & Chokers
