Heil Harvesting, Ulysses KS/Limon CO | So I am not AgTrader, but I am an ag-risk guy (consultant I guess is the proper term), so I will try and put my insight in this. Remember you get what you pay for. In no way is this intended to be marketing advice or a solicitation of business, just my take on the report and the commodities in general
The report was obviously VERY bullish (duh, look at the grains close Friday) which surprised most everybody. Wheat acres down? Is that possible, hope there is not a correction issued, that is about the only thing that scares me. Can't kick anyone for hedging or contracting before the report.
I see three things that would make this grain break to the downside
Weak Energy
Strong Dollar
Profit Taking
Energy doesn’t look weak to me, stable MAYBE.
Dollar-the stock market frankly sucks and really i do not see any hope for a quick rebound. Weak dollar = Exports/high energy prices, so it is kind of a catch 22.
Funds-the funds really have no place to go, maybe energy, maybe metals, energy is strong but slow, metals is the better option, but they are already there.
Todays numbers and the bearish bias have to work into this market, the next big move I see is approaching March 31-planting intentions date. Alot of things unknown, starting with how is this growing season, changes in mandates, exports (though with a weak dollar a decrease in exports is unlikely, still possible).
These markets are dynamic to say the least, might not be a bad idea to put some sort of an out the money put in as a floor just in case this does break cause if it breaks chances are it will be a hard break. Current time I sure wouldn't sell the board or cash contract...
In the wide words of my boss: Good luck. Hope for the best, but expect the unexpected.
Brad
Edited by beh 1/12/2008 14:20
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AgTrader what's your thoughts on the report???
