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Mixed Emotions
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Illinoisfan
Posted 1/11/2008 17:57 (#281051)
Subject: Mixed Emotions



I am new to this board. I have been reading it for about a month now, and I enjoy the insights. My family farms in northern Illinois, and although it is very pleasing to see this "jump" in grain prices, I have to wonder how much of it is truly just euphoria and emotion. We have been selling bits and pieces into every rally, and in the end, this will amount to a great average price. (Not nearly what we would have if we would have just sat on all of it) One must wonder, though, how easy would it be to make a good chunk back when this thing retreats? Any of you thinking about putting puts on existing HTA contracts? I think we are almost at the point where the price exceeds rational thinking. All of my contacts at the local elevators (ADM, Cargill, etc...) have been saying that the current prices are far beyond those that should exist at the current technicals. These guys have been in the business for years and have seen it all. I don't want to rain on any parade, but maybe we could all make money on the down side too. Everything that goes up has to eventually come down. The problem is guessing the altitude it will reach. Since early December, corn has seen less than 5 minimally down days? Doesn't it have to retreat, or is $6 corn (near term) going to get here as fast as $5 corn did (about 5 weeks on the March contract). Will today and Monday mark a blowoff? As long as I'm rambling on... what happens Monday? The CBOT board said that 200,000 contracts were on the buy side during the mid-late session of the day. Does it open limit up again? Somebody is making a killing in this thing, and somebody has a knife labeled "margin call" against his throat. All thoughts welcome!
PS- Go Illini even though we are in the basement this year.
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