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Mining CEO discuss future of gold market
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John Burns
Posted 11/24/2012 13:25 (#2714262 - in reply to #2714160)
Subject: lot of ground to cover



Pittsburg, Kansas

There are a several different subjects in those statements. Not sure which one you mean. If you have read a lot of my posts for the last three or four years most of that was covered and so my comments here were shorthand for things that have been talked about pretty extensively. I'll attempt to explain in something less than a tome but all of those subjects are of significant depth so doing so is difficult.

The 80's gold run up was pretty much a US centric thing..............   Gold had been illegal to own (as bullion) for US citizens from 1933(??) till sometime in the early 70's. Chinese citizens have not been able to own or buy gold and silver till the last decade. China in no way participated in the 70's gold run up yet just within the last couple months have become the worlds largest buyer of gold (surpassing India). They are a big market with a big appetite for gold with a government encouraging their citizens to buy gold and a population with a historic affinity to gold and silver because of Chinese history of paper currency failure. These are huge ranks of people with growing disposable income with a thirst for gold, a government encouraging it, and a distrust for government paper money. None of this demand existed in the 70's (because it was illegal for Chinese citizens to own gold). India's love of gold is well known and is long lived.

came to an abrupt halt when real interest rates turned positive (ala Paul Volker)........... Paul Volker, then Fed chairman, raised interest rates to double digits to put out the flames of runaway inflation. We had went off the gold exchange standard (Bretton Woods agreement) in 71. Money had been created out the Wazoo both to finance Johnsons "Guns and Butter" programs then the Vietnam war. The monetary inflation had caught traction causing price inflation. People started anticipating the inflation that started the feedback loop that eventually leads to hyperinflation. Paul Volker brought it to a screeching halt with high interest rates. 

We (the Fed and Treasury) can't stand to have positive real interest rates today as it would bankrupt both.............. We 1. don't have that option available today and 2. don't have the political will to do so even if the option were available. Tall Paul was not a popular person for what he did. He took the punch bowl away while the party was in full swing. Bernanke today, to the contrary, is spiking the punch bowl and making sure it is kept full. His solution is "party hardy". Why can't we raise interest rates to double digit should price inflation get out of hand? Consider first the Fed. A chart of their balance sheet has been posted on here a number of times so I will not look it up and post one now, but it has ballooned. A good share of what is on it is questionable mortgage debt instruments. Should interest rise, more housing defaults, and that paper quickly goes from bad to worthless. Right now it is carried on their books at full face value. High interest rates would bankrupt our central bank. High interest rates would also bankrupt the Treasury (US government). Right now the interest on the trillions of government debt is only somewhat sustainable because interest rates are almost nothing. Should interest rates go up even a few percentage points...............  well think Greece. We are between a very large rock and a very hard place. Monetarily and fiscally speaking.

Today the US accounts for 8% of gold consumption................ And we think we (as in the US) somehow determine or are the driver behind the price of gold? Me thinks we think too highly of ourselves.

We are the tail that is attempting to wag the dog.......................... when it comes to the price of gold. Gold price is determined currently in two markets. The US Comex paper futures market and the London gold exchange (where gold is traded with a 100 to one fractional reserve leverage). China and India consume half the worlds gold production. You do the math if demand over runs paper gold that has one physical ounce backing promises to one hundred paper ounces.

Following the wrong path for wealth preservation?  Look at bonds where the "full faith and credit of the US government" is backing government debt that is increasing at the rate of over a trillion dollars a year and new money is being created with abandon........... and gold that increases in quanity at about the rate of 1% per year.

Actually, I like silver.

My opinion, worth what you paid for it. Hope this helps.

John



Edited by John Burns 11/24/2012 13:37
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