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Looks like the world is happy to fill exports that US has lost
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Tara Farms
Posted 11/21/2012 10:08 (#2709146)
Subject: Looks like the world is happy to fill exports that US has lost

Red River Valley
Just a few notes on the world export market to see how Our short crop is being overcome have we hit the tipping point where the rest of the world finds other sources than US

sounds like an early Jan to mid Jan harvest for a good chunck of MG Brazil

also when looking at China Imports for October I have to ask who else is selling them beans because we have been told that SA was sold out and we are the only market in town

China also released data on October imports, showing soybeans at 4.03MMT, up 5.79% y/y and up 16.5% YTD. Largest supplier was the US at 1.579MMT. Corn imports were 445,252MT, up 46% y/y and up 385% YTD. Wheat imports were 350,375MT, up 483% y/y and up 248% YTD. The US shipped them 117TMT, Australia 167TMT and Canada 57TMT. Palm Oil imports were up y/y, and currently up 2.36% YTD. In export news, South Korea bought 24,500MT of US wheat from Toepfer. Japan also bought 134,693MT of wheat from the US/Canada/Australia. Japan issued a tender for 320,000MT of feed wheat and barley.

One last tidbit, Russia’s Ag Min has raised the grain export forecast for the current year to 15.5MMT from 10MMT previously. So far this year, Russia has exported 11MMT.

Of note is the fact that China Imported from other than US 2.4mmt of soybean's in Oct. where are they coming from ??

A little data on possible problems going forward on wheat exports

After the reports over the weekend of Indian wheat trading into East African nations as milling wheat, not feed which most in the trade assumed they would be exporting, I decided to add them to the mix. Definitely changes the stocks/use situation of the major exporters, and illustrates why 2007/08 was in fact different than this year. With the Black Sea still exporting wheat, as opposed to being cut off in August of 2010, and India exporting the most wheat since at least 2001, just one of several reasons we still aren’t connecting on export business. There is at least a bit better buffer than maybe originally thought.

And lastly a look at Brazilian corn exports I know everybody ridiculed me when I stated that Brazil would up exports by 10mmt yoy and might get to 15mmt but seeems things are going to be pretty close to that upper level depending on boats and loadouts.

also remember what can not get exported because of loadout issues will be loaded out next year is will not just go away


Edited by Tara Farms 11/21/2012 10:22
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