Posted 11/15/2012 22:36 (#2699643) Subject: Beans history (Sat)
Like you and agtrader said "it is never different this time" and so I thought I would post a history of beans. This is monthly chart so long term picture folks.
If you look back beans traded
.5 - 2.00 from 1920 - 1948,
2.00 - 4.00 from 1948-1974,
4.00 - 10.50 from 1974 - 2007,
10.50 - 18.00 from 2007 - ... 2030 ??? Some rounding off prices on the last jump.
And the truth is you never see big pointy spikes side by side, always a valley between. However entering a new range like the 70's means the valleys are not deep and rounded like after 1996 but sharper and then another top. I sold 2008, 2010 and 2011 like there was no tomorrow. I am finally realizing the truth is we are still making higher highs and higher lows on the long term.
If "it is never different" then we have another higher low to go. Following this we should fail to make a higher high and then break to a lower low for a long term sideways/downtrend. The bad rounded bottoms we lived through 10 years ago should now be in the distant future. Now just sharp painful but live able bottoms.
So I have a zoomed in chart with a long term fork. I have used the red lines (quartiles) and believe there could be a move off of it. Also marked is the low in June at 13.20 that this swing would be attempting to overcome.
The next low at 11.00 is the low we should remain above for the meantime.
Just thought with all the uncertainty lately it would be good to have a large perspective. I know I get caught up in the short term!
Now we can keep looking at the details because 15.00 is still a far cry from 12.50!