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Sea Change at the Fed..??
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JonSCKs
Posted 11/14/2012 11:38 (#2696711 - in reply to #2696145)
Subject: So does Uncle Drew work at the Fed?


With the start of BASKETBALL SEASON.. ("I'm Talk'in.. BASK..ET.. BALL.  We Love that BASK..ET.. BALL") my kids showed me this clip..  pretty cool.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DnKOc6FISU

"Hey I think my Uncle Drew can play.. Uncle Drew.. wanna step on the court?"
"You guys better stop playing around.. Who you want me to take?"
"Get the smallest person on the court.. he's really slow."
"Screen, Screen, Screen.. Screen Me..aw man."
"You okay?"
"Yal I'm good.."
"Well Show them something.."
"Backboard.."
"Uncle Drew.. what the..??"
"Today's not my game.. I don't know where it is..COME ON.."
"oh good steal..
"Uncle Drew's Still GOT SKILLS.." 
BOOM..
"That's MY UNCLE!!"
"Play your position.."

"Don't Reach Young blood..Don't Reach.."

lol.. yal.. no kidding..

edit add: (got interrupted)  Well my point is that the markets were in dire straites in 08  When the Fed took to the court and as we can see from this chart of the Fed's balance sheet..  injected ALOT into the markets.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

On Sept 10th of 2008 the Fed's balance sheet stood at 927 Billion.. by December 17th of 08 they had blown that up to $2.25 Trillion..

"Uncle Drew Still got SKILLS.."

They backed off in February of 09.. down to $1,844 Billion

Then they started leaning back into it... reaching $2.8 trillion by July of 2011.  Then with operation twist pushed reshuffled to try to push the long term of the curve down.

BOOM.

and now it does appear that the high water mark was reached.. last February at 2,940 Billion.. and they've gradually started to reign things back in.. shrinking the balance sheet modestly to $2.825 as of last week.

"That's my Uncle.."

So where to now from here..?

Assumedly they are going to let the purchased bonds pay out which will remove the injection from their balance sheets...???

We have the inflationary effects to deal with of what they have done..

HOWEVER, the fundamentals of actual commodities do not look that bad.. Some are saying that we are on course to be an energy exporter..

http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewhulbert/2012/11/12/ten-reasons-to-be-concerned-about-u-s-energy-independence/

Note: this is maybe not the most rosy article for that perspective.. and no doubt there will be pitfalls along the way.. as well as the engineering realities and other hard truths.. but currently the tide of rising US domestic production from the Shale fields is yielding a tremendous amount of NGL's along with the Renewables.

Also one would think that the drought gripping the middle part of the country will ease up at some point.. in the future.. leading to a return of stocks.

Neither have been realized.. but "that's the plan."

"Play your position."

So IF Washington can belly up a deal on the Fiscal Cliff.. then the FED can remove itself from the court.. sign autographs and all that.. for saving the day.. and all will be well in the world.

So is this a fair "lay of the land" outlook?



Edited by JonSCKs 11/14/2012 12:31
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