I think one marketing problem we have is that we expect markets to behave logically. Unfortunately when you have as much non-producer, non-enduser, money in (and out) of the markets as we seem to have these days things are not necessarily nice and logical much of the time.

Therefore I think you have to grow what you grow best/highest probabability of success and sell in either of two ways: sell a good base portion of your crop when ever you can lock in a "for-sure" significant profit and sell the rest in small sales regularly timed.

Sure this method misses selling everything at the absolute top but it also misses selling everything at the bottom! It does lock in a profit on much of the crop and gives you the ability to cover yourself for crop problems and to take advantage of possible price increases on a portion of your crop without selling all at the bottom. You also get to sleep nights. Don't second guess yourself, be content with a decent profit when the market offers it, then focus on growing the crop.  jmho.

Jim at Dawn