SHORT TERM  MAY  21 -22 
  On the surface Map   this afternoon  see temperatures over  much of ND  much colder than they had been the readings in the 40s  and L 60s.   The front is situated along the ND SD State line  into   Lower MN then across     Lower WI and  into  northeastern ILL  -- including the Chicago metro area  and into Northern IND.   Meanwhile significant   Low pressures developing over the Northern Rockies.

The Low pressure area coming out of the Northern Rockies will bring significant rain as forecasted to much of far southeastern Alberta Saskatchewan and Lower Manitoba (MB) over the next   two days.    The coverage will be about 60 to 70% in these areas... of 0.25" to  1.50"  with locations such as  Medicine Hat  Saskatoon  Regina and Winnipeg.

MEDIUM RANGE   MAY  23 -  27

After that initial area of  Low pressure moves up into Manitoba on Tuesday and another Low will develop on this front across the Upper Plains which  shall bring significant rain to the Dakotas  MN   central and eastern Neb  and  of much of Iowa....75% coverage  of  0.50 to 2.00" with some heavier amounts  to 3.00"+  likely.  This 2nd Low will also move into  MB of and become major low  for that areas bringing ADDITIONAL   heavy rains and  good coverage   to   much of MB and western Ontario  WED and THUR.

The real issue again remains what happens to the cold  front   when it  drives into MO  and  ILL.  Most of the model data shows   this cold front really losing its punch as it approaches the Mississippi River. I am sure there will be SOME showers and thunderstorms with the cold front as a moves  into eastern and central MO and ILL into IND and MI on Wednesday and Thursday. However it is not going to have nearly the impact that this system is going to have over the Upper Plains and WCB....   for the  ECB  40% coverage of 0.10 to 0.50"    

WEEK   2    MAY   28  -  JUNE  3
If you recall the forecast discussion from last Friday -- both in the morning and the midday reports  I mentioned how the pattern had turned significantly wider on some of the medium and long-range models with a series of low pressure area's coming in behind this feature Tuesday /  Wednesday/ Thursday Low and cold front.

The weekend   Data  has NOT  backed off   that idea at all with at least two more   significant  systems  coming in over the Upper Plains  in the the next 10 days!!!  (maybe 3)  The American  Canadian and  European models all develop a system that brings significant rains to the Upper Plains  5/25 and  into the WCB  5/26.... this Low moves into Manitoba and the western Great Lakes so the trailing cold front brings much less rain to the ECB.  This is followed by  another large and wet system for the Upper Plains   late  on 5/28  into the  Upper WCB  and western Great Lakes  on  5/29   followed by  yet ANOTHER  system June 1 -2   coming out of Northern Rockies and again moving in to the Dakotas and western Great Lakes.