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| MAP OF THE VARIOUS REGIONS USED IN THIS NEWSLETTER
http://www.wxrisk.com/WTE/samples/AGREGIONS.jpg
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SHORT TERM (next 60 hrs ) APRIL 16 -17
You are probably going to be hearing some talk this week from the various private forecasting service that this is going to be a warmer and dryer week across many locations especially in the Plains and the WCB. And yes while I am in agreement with that as portion of forecast I don't want you to get the idea that we are entering a significantly different weather pattern because that is certainly not the case.
The Model data shows the system now over the West coast and Great Basin will slide east and IS going to fall apart as it tracks across the central lower Plains . Still this Low will bring moderate to significant rain Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday over portions of Northern Texas Western Central Oklahoma then into the Delta.....60% coverage of 0.25 to 1.50"
OFFICIAL RAINFALL FORECAST
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif
Outside of this small system temperatures will again to reach into the U 60s to M 70s across the most of Plains on Today Tuesday and Wednesday. The Midwest will be slower to warm the cause of the large circulation of the BIG Low off the East Coast and the large cool High coming down from central Canada into the Great Lakes.
MEDIUM RANGE APRIL 18-22
The Period from 4/16 to 4/20 ...5 days... will be the only dry interval we will see between now and end of the month. The model data is in very strong agreement that the first system will come out of the upper Rockies and tracking to the Western portions of the high Plains-- Eastern Montana Eastern Wyoming the Dakotas and Western Nebraska --on the 19th. Rainfall amounts appeared to be in the 0.15 to 0.75" range with 60% coverage. As the system heads up into central Canada it will fall apart.
Meanwhile the large cold High over the Great Lakes will move over the East coast . This will allow winds to become southerly and pull up some very warm air for a few days over the lower Plains... with temperatures breaking the 80° mark on the 18th 19th 20th over New Mexico tax is Oklahoma Kansas Eastern Colorado . I would not be surprised to see some readings in the U 80s.
However the next system will move out of Rockies late on the 21st and this one will develop a strong area of Low pressure over central Kansas and bring significant rain too much of the Plains ...from North TX and western OK all the way to to ND and south-central Canada 4/22 and 4/23. The overnight American model is now in close agreement with the wetter European and British models on this Major Low for the Upper Plains on 4/22-4/23.
This powerful area of Low pressure will allow the warming over the the Plains states and the WCB to spread East of the Mississippi river this coming weekend and early next week but the problem is the pattern doesn't look very dry in week 2
OFFICIAL RAINFALL FORECAST DAY 5
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif
WEEK 2 APRIL 23 - 29
In the week 2 forecast the overnight American Models-- at 1am and 6 am are MUCH wetter than the Sunday afternoon run-- and now closely matches the overnight European. Thus most forecast are wetter today for the week 2 time frame... and some forecasts are very wet .
The day 10 European & American models shows the front stalled out in a Southwest to Northeast direction from central Texas all the way into the Great Lakes with large areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms covering much of the states of Missouri Iowa Illinois Lower Wisconsin.
This link shows the probability of rainfall amounts based on the overnight American Model ensembles
WEEK 2 -- click HERE -- the map in the Upper LEFT shows the % of seeing rainfall up to 0.50" Note the large areas of DARK GREEN over the Midwest. Noter the large areas with a 85 to 100% chance of seeing 0.50 to 1.00" of rain over ALL of the Plains and Midwest!!
The map in the Upper RIGHT shows the % of seeing rainfall from 0.50 to 1.00" .... shows large areas DARK GREEN with a 85 to 100% chance of seeing 0.50 to 1.00" of rain over ALL of the Midwest!!
The Map in the Lower LEFT shows the % of seeing rainfall from 1.00 to 2.00"... the WHITE and light GREEN blobs over eastern MO ARK and western ILL shows a 55-75% chance of seeing 1-2" of rain in week 2 in that area.
Edited by DT-wxrisk 4/16/2007 10:53
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ENJOY THE DRY 5-6 DAYS -- it wont last
