Posted 4/2/2007 23:05 (#129983 - in reply to #129843) Subject: Don't underestimate non corn belt yields
I have been thinking for the last several months that we could see $5 corn or $2.50 corn this year - and maybe both. All the optimism is being based on the demand that is already factored into the market staying there. Could we have a weather event and see $5 corn? I think so with about a 1 in 10 chance. I think we have the same 1 in 10 chance that we will see some sort of hiccup in the energy markets and demand going south - if that happens with perfect weather we could see $2.50 corn this fall.
Don't underestimate what the non-corn belt farms can raise yield wise. Their yields are much more inconsistant than the corn belt (where if yields drop 10% they consider themselves in a drought) but if the stars and planets align right and it rains timely there could be more corn on the ground in the south than ever imagined possible. Like I said - I think there is a 1 in 10 chance we could see extreme prices in either direction. that is the wild card in all the non corn belt production - much harder to pin a projected yield on it with any degree of confidence.