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| I don't disagree with the rain makes grain most of the time, including this current event, but I do agree with the fellow I was visiting with that in 30 days we might be in the middle of a weather scare, either hot/dry or cold/wet. Either one might affect the market.
Personally I believe that there might be a larger than normal switch back to beans if we don't have ideal planting conditions. I would guess that most people who are planning on planting more corn are beginning to stretch the limits of what they can get planted within their optimum window. I know we had that discussion this spring. I also believe that if it turns wet/cold and planters can't run until it's almost too late that there will be a large number of acres that were swing bean acres headed to corn that will go back to beans. Granted corn pencils out better than beans, but if you can't get it planted on time or early, the price of fertilzer and seed is out the roof and the corn market has taken the bloom off prices....there may not be the incentive there once was to blindly stay hitched to the corn wagon.
Personally we already backed off some in the last 3 weeks after seeing DT's analysis of temps in the pacific ocean and comparing it to 88. We had planned to go back corn on corn with about half of our bean acres, but it mean extra work to get it ready, more fertilizer and the biggest one of all was if we could get it in the ground on time. Based on the higher probability of heat stress we decided to back off and keep a better balance of corn/beans because we are already in a 70/30 split of corn/beans in our normal pattern. If we had not already backed off this rain event the last 3 days would have gone a long way toward changing our mind because for us we will no longer have any chance of starting planting corn on the early side. If we're lucky we may barely get in the field and only be a few days late.
Past history here tells me that if I don't get corn planted on time I am much better off with a bean crop that is on time than a corn crop that is even a few days late. Maybe it's not that way other places, but for us if the corn doesn't get planted just right I'd rather have beans. Probably a little to do with our thinner soils and more marginal corn conditions at times.
Time will tell. No one knows what is going to happen, at least not anyone here with the rest of us mortals.
Couple of things to keep in the back of your mind.
Had a grain marketing professor who used to say hind sight is 20/20, you never need glasses on your ass.
He also told us that once you get in your mind that you know exactly what is going to happen and you want to get long or short or what ever the case may be....remember that for you to make a move someone has to make the opposite move you do......and there is a possibility that person is more knowledgeable about the markets than you are. | |
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