|
southern MN | I have no idea either. I'm sure none of us really do.
These are some high prices. One really couldn't be 'wrong' selling all 40,000 bu right now. You would have some nice profit. Even if prices doubled yet - you still would have made a nice sale, a lot more than expected 5 months ago....
Myself: We have no shortage of corn or beans in the USA. There will be enough until next September. We hear they are 'buying acres'.
Once we are in the end of May, there are no more acres to buy. Those buying grain should have what they need. Barring a serious crop shortage (drought, flood, or too few acres left of a certain crop) I see no reason for buyers to pay anything extra for 2006 crop in the bin.
If prices run up too much higher - while we have plenty in the bin - how does that work out? Something is going to collapse. I know corn can go to $6 and beans to $12 - if we get a shortage. Folks are bidding for what's left, and not everyone gets a piece of pie.
Right now, there is enough pie for the near term.
How much higher can prices go with those conditions? I'm starting to hear that some ethanol plants will shut down for maitenence when their booked grain runs out.... A few feedlots are looking to be empty for a while. That sort of thing.
Folks are gonna wake up one morning, look around, and - everyone is booked up on grain, & we still have a few piles sitting around for this year - who will buy it?
I'd hate to be owning all 40,000 bu into May. I'd sure like to own some of it then yet.
Simpley sell 10% every week or whatever time frame until it's gone might get rid of any stress, & let you cash in on a good deal looking at you.
I'm a simple person, & don't get into the puts & calls & all that - seems you spend a lot to lock in a little. I'm sure it works out well for those who know how to work it. Just seems we have a good thing out there right now, why get fancy & let it slip away.
Will be an interesting 2 years or so, as we bounce through the highs & lows of crop use & crop production. I think anything will be greatly magnified in this period - any drought, any bumper crop - all will make wilder swings than we are used to. Will be kinda fun.
Just my random thoughts. Doesn't mean a thing to anyone else. Maybe my thoughts are kinda dumb, maybe they will get others to reply with smarter ideas - I did enjoy the fun replies you got tho. :) I don't know anything about marketing. Just trying to learn too.
--->Paul | |
|
corn and beans in bins
