Cherokee County, Northwest Iowa | Question: is the additional premium for RA-HPO over CRC justifiable to gain unlimited price movement, vs. maximimum $1.50 move for CRC? Guesstimating addtional premium cost/acre to be around $4.00 for 75%, and $8.00 for 80%.
As of today, Feb. average Dec. corn price is $4.04.
1. Chances of fall Dec. corn greater than $4.04 + 1.50 = $ 5.54 ????
2. Chances of fall Dec. corn less than $4.04 - $1.50 = $ 2.54 ????
As of right now, I can't justify the additional premium. If corn supply is forecasted to be so tight next fall, can't see it falling below $ 2.54. Chances of over $5.54?-I would say doubtful, but I had to send my crystal ball back to factory, been kinda fuzzy lately. Thanks in advance. Bruce |