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CRC vs. RA-HPO on corn
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Bruce NW Ia
Posted 2/23/2007 18:14 (#109821)
Subject: CRC vs. RA-HPO on corn


Cherokee County, Northwest Iowa
Question: is the additional premium for RA-HPO over CRC justifiable to gain unlimited price movement, vs. maximimum $1.50 move for CRC? Guesstimating addtional premium cost/acre to be around $4.00 for 75%, and $8.00 for 80%.

As of today, Feb. average Dec. corn price is $4.04.

1. Chances of fall Dec. corn greater than $4.04 + 1.50 = $ 5.54 ????

2. Chances of fall Dec. corn less than $4.04 - $1.50 = $ 2.54 ????

As of right now, I can't justify the additional premium. If corn supply is forecasted to be so tight next fall, can't see it falling below $ 2.54. Chances of over $5.54?-I would say doubtful, but I had to send my crystal ball back to factory, been kinda fuzzy lately. Thanks in advance. Bruce
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