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SC Iowa | Mr Earnhart...you've posed some interesting questions....however, a lot more information is needed before making some of the decisions...
for instance:
1) What is your general location and what are the changes in corn demand that are occurring there?? Did I catch on one of your posts (I see you scattered them all around the ag sites) that you are in NW Iowa?? If so, I think you are fortunate for this fall's harvest because I believe that corn supplies in the NW 25% of Iowa will be drawn down to very low levels by harvest---thus, there will be more available space to fill. at least for this year....
2) What is your typical harvest pattern?? Can you hit the first 10-20% of corn harvest when some good basis opportunities may happen this year in NW Iowa?? Or do you plant a lot of full season corns and end up moving a lot of bushels in the last 25% of harvest??
3) What would consider a normal selling pattern for your crops? In the past, what percentage of your new crop corn would be priced by March 1, June 1, September 1?? Are you comfortable changing your selling pattern??
4) You mentioned the Cargill bin program and a 60,000 bushel bin.....not knowing the size of your operation, it's difficult to say whether a bin of that size tied up in the bin program is good, bad, or indifferent......my personal bias is that I would want the opportunity to know I corn sold at $4, not "maybe", unless the economics were absolutely compelling to do otherwise
5) HTA's----once again, basis is all "local"....you HAVE to know what are going to be the drivers for basis in your area based on current and possible corn supplies, and the demand side from ethanol/feed mill usage...
BUT, when it is all said and done, if you are in a good corn growing area, and can capture 3.50 or higher off the combine, it's hard not to be thinking about more corn, even if it has to go to town during harvest...
Ray J | |
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07 Corn - Pricing Strategies and Storage
