jeff gordon - 1/24/2023 15:47
Does it mean drought? !
That's what the author wants you to believe, but in reality it only increases the odds very slightly that the temp may rise relative to the base period and doesn't take into account of what I highlighted from above.
Last year, the World Meteorological Organization estimated that there is a 50-50 chance of global temperatures temporarily crossing the 1.5C warming threshold in at least one year between 2022 and 2026. However, this estimate does not take the warming effect of the Tonga eruption into account. The plot below shows the likelihood of global surface temperatures exceeding the 1.5C threshold over 2015-35 (solid lines) under the four scenarios investigated above, and the cumulative probability that no year has yet exceeded 1.5C (dashed lines) for each. The plot shows that the Tonga eruption increased the chance of at least one year over 2022-26 years exceeding the 1.5C warming threshold by seven percentage points. In other words, under the SSP1-19 scenario, the probability has risen from 50 to 57%, while under SSP2-45, it has risen from 60 to 67%.
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I am very bullish grain, but I found an advisor more bullish
